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Explore: Climate change in terms of weather caused by anthropogenic changes. Australia’s unique habitat. The industrial revolution and global warming. A Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) and drought.
Our Climate Region
Image: Coolangatta in Winter 2019
Australia has a unique geographic location in relation to its size and position on the planet. Australia had just been discovered when the Industrial revolution began and as a new colony development and industrialisation was slow and not an immediate priority.
As a colony and dominion of Great Britain, Australia supplied the “Mother country” with agricultural goods and was a primary producer for a long time. Settlers explored and took over the land and established themselves where the Indigenous people had lived for thousands of years.
The discovery of Gold was a major event which opened the country further in the mid 19th century. Australia had to be self-supporting in some ways and we needed to maintain a manufacturing sector also. As the 20th century continued we discovered vast deposits of other minerals that drove a minerals boom based on exporting which increased our wealth. By the 21st century we had developed a mastery of harnessing our resources to build our economy.
The slow realisation that human anthropogenic changes were impacting on our environment across the world has created a dilemma for the future. As a major “supply” economy how can we still maintain our prosperity and yet still manage our country and environment for the future?
Previously management of the environment has been seen as a “fringe” element which is counter-productive to development and has been routinely “pushed back”. The practical elements of environmental management are the most important aspects when managing Australia in its place in the world. Australia’s greenhouse output(GHG) is currently about 20 times less than China and is an equivalent output of all air travel in an average year.
Nevertheless, big impacts are now being observed in climate across the world and though people will argue there is always change, anthropogenic change if left unmanaged will further disrupt human activity and decrease our quality of life.
How we manage climate impacts in Australia in the near future and for the next 30 years is a big question?
Changing weather function is what we have every day as a result of anthropogenic (human) impacts. Climate is the interaction of a range of global inputs including the effects of global weather systems, space weather, including sun activity, earth’s rotation, and well-researched human effects. Knowledge of our region and the climate impacts and interactions is essential and is of further significance as the future unfolds for Australia as it deals with future climate impacts. Australia is the 2nd driest continent in the world and 35% of the country is desert. As the northern hemisphere has more land mass, climate impacts and weather dynamics are different. This explains, to some extent, the difference in impacts in Australia. Baghdad was 53’ Celsius in July 2020.
Global warming impacts and further lack of rain will likely disrupt our economy and impact on our lifestyle and cost of living. Water management is a major component to manage our country for the future. Ensuring there is adequate water supply when climate management is uncertain and involves other countries that are motivated to act on their own interests is significant. This affects economic security as well as national security. A single raindrop has been measured at 355 Parts Per Million (PPM). If CO2 is topping 417 PPM with Australia at 409 PPM (in 2020) then the balance will be harder to re-dress. Australia is rated by most rational climate scientists and environmentalists as a country which is vulnerable to climate impacts and weather amplification.
As just one actor on a stage amongst others we are still held hostage to the economic management of other countries and their approach to mitigating climate change. On this basis, I promote the concept of integrated management of the environment and energy sectors so we can create more security for Australia in the future. What is integral and rational is to explore what we can do to preserve our environment and to manage our economy so we can retain the great quality that we have developed.
After an extended period of drought declared over 3 years and New South Wales declared 100% in drought in August 2018, a significant weather event occurred. On the 6th September 2019, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) confirmed a high altitude event over the southern ocean and Antarctica related to the Polar Vortex. This weather event is commonly known as a ‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming’(SSW). These are special weather events that occur in the stratosphere and are an important part of earth weather science.
Here is the link: uploaded 6th September 2019 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-06/rare-weather-event-over-antarctica-drives-hot-outlook/11481498
Indeed, shortly after this date fires commenced in south-east Queensland and the “catastrophic” fires began down the east coast of Australia as the summer evolved. The ABC statement, and also the BOM, stated that this event “is not caused by global warming”. Though, it is possible that the SSW was the “match” that lit the fire given Australia was tinder-dry in a lot of places. SSW do occur regularly in the Northern Hemisphere and happen less frequently in the Southern Hemisphere as the Polar Vortex is generally stronger south of the equator. Advice from the UK now indicates that the 2019 event was not a true SSW and was a “near miss”. As there is less land mass in the Southern Hemisphere they occur less frequently. Research is still pending on the impact of climate change on the intensity and occurrence of SSW. An SSW was to blame for the Texas snow storms in early 2021. SSW events are significant weather events where, as an example, the Texas snow storm may even be linked to major precipitation events in Australia six weeks later (like those occurring in 3/2021). These events are powerful events that have long-lasting effects that linger and can be likened to an “atomic explosion” in the Polar Vortex.
With reference to : N.M Pedatella, J. L. Chau, H. Schmidt, L. P. Goncharenko, C. Stolle, K. Hocke, V. L. Harvey, B. Funke, and T. A. Siddiqui 20 March 2018
https://eos.org/features/how-sudden-stratospheric-warming-affects-the-whole-atmosphere
An SSW is a “global” event and a significant weather shift. This article was released in 20 March 2018 and is well referenced science. According to this article the effect of an SSW can last years. Also, it is relevant to note that it suggests that the SSW commences in the Troposphere which is the weather zone closest to the ground. The Troposphere varies in height though becomes thinner at the poles. The SSW commences in the lower atmosphere and is carried higher into the stratosphere by ‘Rossby’ waves. A link is shown here:
With reference to: El Nino, La Nina, and the Southern Oscillation: © Samuel L Philander by ScienceDirect
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/planetary-wave
The research suggests that vertical scale of Rossby waves are increased at Earth’s higher latitudes. This is certainly complex science when the physics components are added. Based on this background knowledge, it is my theory that perhaps an extended drought with “flat” or dormant weather systems that created hardly any rain through 2018 and 2019, turned the land mass and oceans around Australia into a “pond” of heat.
Science is at the point where it can explore theory on the effects of greenhouse gases at the outer edge of the atmosphere. Request ‘Equatorial Jet Stream’ on Google© and get a quick snapshot on how dynamic weather is and how far the science has evolved. For those who love big science and physics some more links are available in the Section: Additional Notes & Updates.
If the Rossby wave science is examined it suggests that it is the impact of heat from deeper ocean levels that can create an SSW. I suggest possibly the extended heat may have helped “kick” off the SSW. Though you cannot say precisely or exactly that the SSW was a result of climate change it cannot be completely denied either. Though there are always cycles of drought and flood, “ampilification” of these events by human climate impacts will further make the continent of Australia vulnerable to future increases of temperature.
Future research and major investment in science in Australia is needed to know more about the greenhouse impacts that affect our region in particular. Regular monitoring programs in the atmosphere around Australia are needed and will provide important knowledge to understand the climate dynamics in our region. This investment is essential so we can link as much into the “puzzle” as possible. This can lead us to invest in better programs and better land and ocean management for the future.
© Reprinted by permission of Dale Hurst NOAA
Observing Water Vapour | World Meteorological Organization
Those who question the importance of climate change sometimes claim that reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions into the atmosphere will have a very limited effect, because water vapour is the most dominant greenhouse gas. If that is the case, they wonder why bother so much about CO2 and other greenhouse gases? Observations by the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch programme have helped to...
public.wmo.int
El Nino events, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the Southern Oscillation are major weather systems that affect Australia. Adding in climate impacts it is still uncertain how these systems can all interact and how much “amplification” will occur. Is a prolonged shift in the Indian Ocean Dipole an impact of climate warming? This is unknown though may be a possible effect.
© Reprinted by permission of The Department of Industry. www.industry.gov.au
Some progress to slow Australia’s greenhouse emissions has been occurring. Though the renewables sector is growing, most coal power stations will still continue operation until at least 2030. Generally, the government has been slow to develop a concept of “transition” though business is now motivated to see it evolve to provide future planning. The issue on how all sectors and aspects of an economy can be managed is still uncertain. Developing an economic pathway of transition is necessary and should be all encompassing.
The cost and financial resources required to improve the environment itself and to manage the economy will be significant due to major disruptions in the economy due to the recent CoVid-19 events. Developing a comprehensive approach to look at all sectors and to “transition” forward is a major challenge.
A rational approach to move forward and start a transition program is to respect the debate but also be fair and reasonable regards Greenhouse calculations and limit any ‘Carbon Carryover’. If the Kyoto accord occurred in 2005 then it is fair to limit any past carryover to 2020. I think it rational and fair to lock in 10 year cycles of measurement and limit “Carryover”. Rational science has to prevail if the community commits to the science. If the government talks to the IPCC on behalf of the Australian people then we need to apply a principle of fairness and equity and not ask for any special “favours” just because we invented vegemite. The “Surf’s Up, Nobodies Home” concept has been around for a while.
My emissions strategy for Australia looks like this:
- A Transition Cycle of Renewable Targets- Re-setting the Numbers to 2005. End of Carbon Carryover for any Government from 2020 (at the very Least!) And then moving forward for every 10 years to 2048.
- 26-28% Emissions reduction by 2030.
- 45-48% Emissions reduction by 2040
- 75% Emissions reduction by 2048 - 2050. This equates to approximate an on-going commitment maximum of 125 Million Tonnes Total Greenhouse by 2050.
- Zero-net emissions may be possible though needs a major financial and policy commitment.
Most scientists say we need to have more "Climate ambition" to effectively reduce emissions by 2050. In 2023, the World and Australia isn't even close. More change right down to Local Government regulation is essential in the transition of Australia's economy. Many say that the Commonwealth is too slow to act effectively and feral pests are still rampant across the country. A Methane Reduction plan may be required as a serious 'Step Goal' for all UN CC COP Countries.